Recent reports have sparked speculation about a possible meeting between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Moscow. However, this prospect has been met with conflicting statements and denials, leaving the situation shrouded in uncertainty.

On July 15, Assad expressed readiness to meet Erdoğan if it served Syria's national interests, specifically mentioning the withdrawal of Turkish forces from Syrian territory as a prerequisite. Erdoğan also indicated that Turkish officials were formulating a roadmap to restore diplomatic ties with Damascus, a process that could culminate in direct talks between the leaders. Despite these developments, multiple sources within Turkey have dismissed claims that such a meeting is imminent.

The Kremlin's spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, confirmed that facilitating communication between Turkish and Syrian representatives is indeed on the agenda. Peskov highlighted Russia's ongoing efforts to mediate and foster diplomatic relations between the two nations, emphasizing Russia's vested interest in regional stability. He also noted that the conference might include Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' Al Sudani but could potentially exclude Iran, underscoring the complex geopolitical dynamics at play.

The Iranian involvement in Syria remains a critical consideration in these diplomatic maneuverings. Iran, alongside Russia, has been a staunch ally of Assad's regime, providing substantial military support. Tehran's strategic interests in Syria partly conflict with Ankara's objectives, creating friction. Iranian officials have indicated that their participation within the framework of the Astana talks is essential for any substantive progress in Syrian peace efforts. Yet, the alignment between Turkish and Russian positions on Syria appears to be more conducive to a diplomatic breakthrough, at least from Turkey's perspective.

The potential meeting between Erdoğan and Assad is reportedly being orchestrated by Russia, illustrating Moscow's desire to play an influential role in restoring regional order. The historical context adds depth to these developments; relations between Turkey and Syria were robust before the Syrian civil war began in 2011, characterized by economic cooperation and trade agreements. Restoring these ties, however, presents numerous challenges, not least due to Turkey's ongoing support for Syrian opposition factions and the complex interplay of international interests in Syria.

Critics argue that without Iran's inclusion, any agreements may lack comprehensive enforceability, given Iran's deep entrenchment in Syria's military and political landscape. Analyst Mahmoud Bazzi suggests that Iran may obstruct normalization if excluded from the reconciliation process, asserting its influence through both military presence and political negotiations.

Conversely, Dmitry Gorenburg, a senior researcher at the CNA Corporation, emphasizes Russia's role in balancing the competing interests of Turkey and Iran in Syria. He points out that Moscow's extensive military footprint in Syria, notably at the Hmeimim Air Base, positions it as a critical arbiter capable of facilitating dialogue and ensuring any agreement's viability.

The economic implications of a rapprochement between Ankara and Damascus also bear significant weight. Reopening trade routes and revitalizing pre-war economic partnerships could offer mutual benefits, yet this prospect hinges on overcoming substantial political and security hurdles. The reopening of the Abu Zendin crossing in Aleppo, for instance, has been a tentative step towards re-establishing economic links but remains a far cry from the expansive bilateral trade witnessed before the war.

The skepticism of diplomatic experts regarding the rapid normalization of Turkish-Syrian relations is palpable. While the potential for incremental advances exists, the intertwined interests of regional powers and the profound mistrust accumulated over a decade of conflict cannot be easily dispelled. As Turkey navigates its diplomatic strategy, its approach to Iran and Russia's roles will be pivotal in shaping the outcomes of any negotiations with Syria.

In summary, the discourse surrounding a prospective summit between Erdoğan and Assad encapsulates the intricate web of alliances, rivalries, and strategic calculations in the Syrian conflict. The road to normalization is fraught with obstacles, but with concerted diplomatic efforts and cautious optimism, incremental progress remains a possibility.