Armenia and Azerbaijan: The Path to Peace

Armenia and Azerbaijan have reached a critical juncture after decades of conflict, as a new peace agreement awaits signing. Stakeholders anticipate a transformative change in the Caucasus.

Published March 15, 2025 - 00:03am

4 minutes read
Armenia
Azerbaijan
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The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan has remained one of the most persistent and complex disputes in the post-Soviet landscape. The two countries have reached a critical point with the announcement that a peace agreement is ready for signing, which could effectively resolve the longstanding hostilities primarily centered around the Nagorno-Karabakh region.

On Thursday, the Armenian foreign ministry confirmed it has accepted Azerbaijan's proposals concerning two previously unresolved articles of the draft peace agreement. This development was mirrored by Azerbaijan's Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov, who extensively addressed the media about the successful conclusion of negotiations on the peace treaty. The diplomatic dialog, marked by intricate negotiations and periods of fluctuation, ultimately reached its zenith with the consensus on the document that emerges as a potential resolution to three decades of confrontation.

The pivotal moment in these negotiations came after Azerbaijan's 2023 offensive, which positioned it as a dominant force following its victory in reclaiming control over Nagorno-Karabakh. The conflict dates to the collapse of the Soviet Union, leading to repeated wars, the most notable in 1988-1994 and 2020. These conflicts have witnessed fluctuating control over Nagorno-Karabakh, shifting the geopolitical dynamics in South Caucasus.

Armenia's acknowledgment of Azerbaijani sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh, a region central to both nations' identities and histories, marks a significant gesture towards peace. However, Armenia's acceptance came with reservations, particularly criticizing Azerbaijan's unilateral declaration without mutual accord. Despite this, the peace agreement reflects a pivotal shift towards lasting reconciliation, urged forward by international stakeholders including France and Russia, albeit with varying degrees of engagement.

Emmanuel Macron, the President of France, publicly commended the progress made in the peace negotiations. His stance, alongside France's continued military support to Armenia, has positioned France as a crucial diplomatic player, although this role has been met with skepticism from Azerbaijan. However, France remains optimistic about the prospective normalization of relations and the establishment of a permanently peaceful region with open borders for economic and cultural exchange.

Russia's involvement has been observed with a sense of strategic restraint due to its concurrent focus on the Ukraine conflict. Though traditionally wielding significant influence in the South Caucasus, Russia's role has been perceived as more of a regional observer rather than a direct mediator in the current peace negotiations. Tensions with both Armenia and Azerbaijan have influenced its interactions, with Moscow's historically deep ties to Yerevan juxtaposed against its pragmatic engagement with Baku.

Turkey has also emerged as an essential ally to Azerbaijan, leveraging its geopolitical clout and fostering a robust partnership, underscored by its support during recent military endeavors. This alliance further aligns with Azerbaijan's extended reach, compounded by its substantial energy reserves feeding European demand, which strengthens its regional influence.

Internally, Armenia faces the considerable task of addressing constitutional and legislative adaptations to facilitate the implementation of the peace agreement. As highlighted by Azerbaijani diplomatic demands, these amendments are critical to acknowledging Azerbaijan's territorial sovereignty, signaling vital legislative shifts required within Armenia's political framework.

The prospective dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group, alongside these developments, further emphasizes the redundancy of prior mediatory structures, shifting focus towards more immediate bilateral and multilateral engagements to address and resolve underlying friction.

The road ahead for Armenia and Azerbaijan promises profound transformations, deeply intertwined with the regional aspirations for peace and stability. The dual effort to cultivate harmonious relations while preserving national interests holds the potential to redefine the South Caucasus's geopolitical landscape, making it a cradle for cooperation and lasting tranquility.

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