Oil Market Jitters Amid Supply Disruptions Persist

Oil prices remain volatile as geopolitical tensions and supply issues affect the market. With disruptions in major pipelines and fluctuating inventories, the industry sees a mixed outlook.

Published February 22, 2025 - 00:02am

3 minutes read
United States
Singapore
Kazakhstan
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The global oil market continues to exhibit volatility as it faces an array of influences, including geopolitical tensions and significant supply disruptions. Notably, prices have experienced fluctuations, supported partly by an improving demand forecast in key economies such as the United States and China, and hindered by rising crude inventories.

This week, Brent crude futures and the U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) displayed price steadiness, despite minimal day-to-day changes. Brent crude slightly declined by 3 cents to $76.45 a barrel, while WTI decreased by 4 cents to $72.44. Despite these small dips, both benchmarks saw more than a 2% increase over the week, marking Brent's second consecutive week of gains and WTI's first after previous losses.

Market analysts have pointed to an increase in global oil demand, with averages reaching approximately 103.4 million barrels per day as of mid-February. This demand curve is expected to rise further based on harsh winter conditions in the U.S. and the resurgence of industrial activity in China post-holidays.

However, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a substantial increase of 3.34 million barrels in U.S. crude oil inventories, contributing to a broader trend where inventories have shown significant builds over several weeks.

Compounding the complex scenario is the geopolitical landscape, notably the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which adds an unpredictable element to the supply side of the equation. A recent attack involving a Ukrainian drone on a key Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) facility led to a significant reduction in oil flow, impacting major export routes for Kazakhstan's crude. Despite this, Kazakhstan reported record high oil output, raising questions about the resilience and adaptability of its oil infrastructure.

Further complicating matters is the emerging dialogue around oil-related sanctions and potential peace treaties in the Ukraine conflict. The United States and Russia have been involved in negotiations with varying degrees of support from Ukraine, further influencing oil market dynamics.

The future movements of the oil market are set against a backdrop of supply pressures and the possibility of changes in OPEC+ production policies. As traders and analysts keep a close watch on inventory reports, market sentiment remains cautious, highlighted by fluctuations in stockpiles and refinery outputs.

In conclusion, the global oil market is navigating through a phase marked by significant uncertainty and external pressures. The convergence of supply disruptions, geopolitical negotiations, and varying demand forecasts, alongside inventory dynamics, continues to shape the price and availability of oil on the global stage.

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