Oli's Return: Nepal Navigates Political Instability
The recent appointment of KP Sharma Oli as Nepal's Prime Minister signals another shift in the nation's turbulent political landscape, impacting its relations with India and China.
Published July 16, 2024 - 00:07am
KP Sharma Oli, chairman of the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) and a former prime minister, was appointed to head a new coalition government in Nepal. This development marks another chapter in Nepal's ongoing political instability, highlighting the volatility that has persisted since the country became a republic.
Oli, who has served as Nepal's prime minister three times before, was assigned the role by President Ram Chandra Poudel following a political mandate that called for a majority coalition in the House of Representatives. Oli's swift move to form an alliance with the Nepali Congress, the main opposition party, facilitated this transition after the previous Prime Minister, Pushpa Kamal Dahal, lost a vote of confidence.
The new coalition led by Oli and comprised of his CPN-UML party and the Nepali Congress, underscores a significant political shift. On Friday, Dahal's government collapsed once the CPN-UML withdrew its support, quickly aligning with the Nepali Congress. Consequently, Oli, supported by 165 MPs including his party's 77 and the Nepali Congress's 88 members, staked his claim to form the government, easily surpassing the 138 votes required for a majority.
Oli's return to power is not without its geopolitical implications. Relations with India and China have often been contentious during his previous terms, where his tenure from 2015 to 2016 saw a significant strain with India. The 2015 unofficial blockade imposed by India on Nepal led to severe shortages and heightened tensions. However, ties eased after Oli's goodwill visit to India in 2016. During his term, Oli also fostered stronger ties with China, pushing infrastructure projects like the cross-border highway and expanding trade relations, often irking New Delhi.
Diplomatic balancing between these two giants remains one of Oli's critical challenges. Analyst Bhoj raj Pokhrel highlighted that the task at hand for the new government includes reestablishing Nepal's credibility on the international stage while maintaining a balance between India and China's influences. This balancing act is crucial as both neighbors seek to expand their foothold in Nepal's political and economic spheres.
India has also extended an olive branch, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulating Oli on his new appointment. Modi expressed optimism in strengthening the bonds of friendship and expanding mutually beneficial cooperation between India and Nepal. Although Oli's pro-China stance is well-known, his coalition with the Nepali Congress could moderate any extremist leanings, potentially offering a balanced approach in foreign policy.
Furthermore, India continues to invest heavily in Nepal's infrastructure and developmental projects, aiming to cement its influence. From hydropower projects to cross-border rail links, these initiatives underscore India's strategy of using development as a diplomatic tool to foster stronger bilateral ties.
China, on the other hand, views Oli's pro-China stance as a strategic advantage. His efforts to boost trade and infrastructure projects with China play into Beijing's broader regional ambitions under the Belt and Road Initiative. Despite this, Nepal's strategic position necessitates a nuanced approach to ensure that the nation does not become overly dependent on any single neighbor.
Oli's reappointment also brings internal political challenges. The coalition government must navigate Nepal's complex political waters marked by fleeting alliances and frequent spells of instability. Historical patterns suggest that maintaining a stable government in Nepal is a Herculean task, given the diverse and often conflicting political interests.
For now, Oli's immediate task is to secure a vote of confidence in Parliament within a month to solidify his leadership. The coalition enjoys a narrow majority but must remain vigilant against potential fractures that could destabilize the government.
In conclusion, KP Sharma Oli's appointment as Nepal's Prime Minister ushers in a period of substantial political activity both domestically and on the geopolitical front. How effectively Oli, along with his coalition partners, manages to navigate these turbulent waters remains to be seen. The implications of his leadership will resonate through Nepal's political landscape and beyond, affecting regional dynamics with major players like India and China.