Oil Prices Surge Amid US-Houthi Conflict

Discover how escalating military operations and geopolitical tensions are impacting oil markets, global trade, and economic forecasts in the wake of recent US airstrikes in Yemen.

Published March 18, 2025 - 00:03am

3 minutes read
United States
Singapore
Yemen
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In a dramatic turn of events, oil prices recorded an uptick on Monday following the United States' commitment to intensify its military actions against Yemen's Houthi rebels. This development comes with the aim of deterring further attacks on commercial shipping routes, exacerbating an already tense geopolitical climate in the Middle East.

The military operations, which the Houthi-run health ministry reports have resulted in the tragic loss of 53 lives, mark the most significant US military engagement in the region since the inauguration of President Donald Trump in January. These airstrikes are perceived as a response to the escalating disruptions in global commerce stemming from Houthi assaults on shipping in the Red Sea.

Analysts are closely watching the repercussions of these operations as both Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures climbed by 0.6%, recording prices of $70.99 and $67.58 per barrel, respectively. The ongoing conflict and potential further unrest pose significant threats to stability, potentially halting several weeks of declining oil prices that were initially driven by global economic slowdown fears.

Despite the military's impact on oil dynamics, economic factors have not been left untouched. Notably, the latest annual forecasts from Goldman Sachs predicted a slower-than-anticipated US economic growth trajectory. The imposition of tariffs on key trade partners, including Canada, China, and Mexico, contributes to this cautious outlook, with concerns raised about spiraling inflation and the battering of consumer confidence. Consequently, Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for December 2025, slashing the anticipated price for Brent to $71 per barrel with similar adjustments for WTI.

The broader economic picture reveals attempts by countries like China to bolster domestic consumption. The Chinese government has introduced a targeted 'special action plan' as a remedial measure to spur economic activity amidst surging US tariffs, threatening the stability of the global trade order.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) aligns with these concerns, predicting fluctuating oil demand growth globally. Much of this unpredictability stems from volatile geopolitical events, such as the US's heightened military presence, and economic policies like trade tariffs.

Adding to the complexity is the expectation of significant supply growth in the coming years, as reported in the IEA's outlook. Key contributions are anticipated from non-OPEC + countries, including the US, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana, impinging on the future demand for OPEC's output.

Simultaneously, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has reported a noticeable decline in oil prices as speculative positions by hedge funds cause price volatility. While OPEC maintains its predictions for economic growth, suggesting a moderate pace for major economies like the US and China, the unforeseen military developments may necessitate further adjustments.

Reflecting on the growing tension, the market remains wary of potential retaliations which could further destabilize economic sentiment globally. Recognizing this fragile equilibrium, US Federal Reserve officials, convening shortly, are expected to maintain current interest rates as they assess the broader economic ramifications stemming from administration policies.

The cascade of events underscores the intricate web linking military actions and economic forecasts. Traders, policymakers, and international observers continue to grapple with these issues' ripple effects on an interconnected world economy. As global markets brace for further ramifications, the oil industry sits at a pivotal crossroad, teetering between geopolitical disruptions and strategic economic maneuvers.

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