Gold Prices Reach Historic Highs Amid Economic Uncertainty

Global gold prices have surged to unprecedented levels, driven by market speculation, declining interest rates, and geopolitical instability.

Published September 15, 2024 - 00:09am

4 minutes read
China
Germany
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On September 13, gold prices reached a historic high in China, with prices for gold jewelry from brands like Chow Tai Fook, Laofengxiang, and Lao Miao Gold hitting approximately 760 RMB per gram. Chow Sang Sang's gold price peaked at 761 RMB per gram, marking a monthly high after a consistent upward trend.

The price hike was evident in offline stores. In Changsha, Chinese Gold and Chow Tai Fook stores adjusted their prices to reflect the new highs. Promotions were concurrently launched to attract customers during the Mid-Autumn Festival. A sales staff member at a China Gold store in Changsha highlighted the price jump from 746 RMB to 758 RMB per gram within a day.

Market analysts attribute this surge to growing expectations of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve is anticipated to lower interest rates due to indications of a slowing US economy, marked by a rise in initial jobless claims. These developments have substantially influenced the global gold market, pushing spot gold and COMEX gold futures prices to new record highs.

Historically, gold has been a favored asset during times of economic uncertainty. In August 2024, a standard gold bar's price reached $1 million for the first time. The spot gold price soared over 21% in 2024, peaking at $2,500.72 per Troy ounce on August 2, and continued to fluctuate around $2,525 in late August and early September. The desire for a tangible, globally valued asset remains strong among individuals and financial institutions.

Interest rates, inflation, supply-demand dynamics, and investor sentiment towards risk also play significant roles in gold's popularity. John Stepek of Bloomberg termed gold as fallback money, emphasizing its stability in volatile financial periods. It is considered a forever asset, with central banks retaining gold regardless of market conditions. The recent capability for Costco members to purchase gold bars online underscores gold's widespread appeal as an investment.

In Europe, the gold price in euros also peaked, reaching 2,290 Euros per ounce. This was driven primarily by speculation about declining interest rates, especially in the US. As the US Federal Reserve is expected to announce a rate cut, the market eagerly awaits inflation data which may further influence the decision. Economic indicators suggest inflation in the US fell to 2.5% in August, nearing the Federal Reserve's target and indicating potential for monetary easing.

On September 12, the Troy ounce of gold troy hit a new high of $2,550, reflecting broader trends influenced by central bank policies. These included recent interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank and anticipated reductions by the Federal Reserve. The global backdrop of monetary easing has bolstered the gold market, which has seen a near 22% appreciation this year alone.

Political and economic uncertainties, including geopolitical tensions such as the Palestine-Israel conflict and economic instability impacting banking sectors, further drive gold's value. Bank of America projected gold prices could rise to $3,000 per ounce within 12 to 18 months, largely due to increased demand from central banks.

In Russia, predictions by Veles Capital analyst Elena Kozhukhova suggest gold prices might escalate to $2,800 per ounce by year-end, and potentially to $3,000 under unforeseen circumstances. She emphasizes the market's expectation of the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut in this cycle, which might lead to further gold value boosts.

The reinforcement from geopolitical, political, and economic uncertainties worldwide indicates a continuing upward pressure on gold prices. Futures contracts reflect this trend, driving gold prices to unprecedented heights and reinforcing its appeal as a safe-haven asset.

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