GCC's Economic Surge Amid Global Challenges
Explore how the GCC economies are poised for substantial growth, seeking to outpace global trends despite facing multifaceted challenges.
Published December 08, 2024 - 00:12am
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies are on track for impressive growth, with projections indicating an acceleration from a 1.9% growth rate in 2024 to 4% in 2025. This positive outlook comes despite the continued impact of global economic challenges and the strategic extensions of OPEC+ oil production cuts. The Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales (ICAEW) reports that GCC's growth is set to significantly outpace the modest global GDP increase from 2.7% in 2024 to 2.8% in 2025.
Central to this economic resurgence is the robust performance of both the energy and non-energy sectors in the region. The unwinding of oil production cuts is anticipated to propel the energy sector to a rebound of 4.2% growth in 2025. Meanwhile, the non-energy sectors are expected to sustain their upward trajectory with a 4% expansion over the same period. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for Saudi Arabia notably reached a six-month high, denoting strong business confidence and heightened domestic activity.
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) plays a vital role in the GCC's economic narrative, with growth projections increasing from 3.7% in 2024 to 4.5% in 2025. Despite slight moderation anticipated in the non-energy sector due to capacity constraints, the UAE's economy benefits from substantial investment inflows, including a significant $16 billion in greenfield foreign direct investments. Tourism continues to be a growth pillar, with rising visitor numbers in Dubai underlining this trend.
Saudi Arabia emerges as a key player in the region's growth, expecting an economic boost from 1.4% in 2024 to 4.4% in 2025. This recovery is marked by a thriving non-oil sector poised for a 5.8% expansion. Furthermore, Saudi Arabia's strategic investments in the tourism sector, supported by an ambitious $800 billion funding program, alongside hosting major global events like Expo 2030 and FIFA World Cup 2034, are pivotal to its diversification strategy under Vision 2030.
Fiscal policies across the GCC maintain resilience despite fluctuating oil revenues. Saudi Arabia's fiscal strategy includes budget deficits supported by low government debt, ensuring flexibility for strategic investments integral to economic diversification. The UAE showcases strong fiscal management with a projected budget surplus of 4.1% in 2025, epitomizing its robust economic framework.
Inflation in the GCC is seen rising moderately from 1.8% in 2024 to 2.3% in 2025, remaining under control due to effective monetary policies. Interest rates aligned with US Federal Reserve adjustments are expected to boost real estate investments and private-sector confidence.
The integration of sustainability into economic practices is a distinguishing feature of the GCC's growth strategy. State Street Global Advisors note significant developments in the capital markets, with GCC equities outperforming the broader emerging markets index. This economic resilience coupled with currency stability makes GCC economies enticing to global investors, further enhancing the potential for sustained growth.